ABSTRACT
Population distribution data with high spatiotemporal resolution are of significant value and fundamental to many application areas, such as public health, urban planning, environmental change, and disaster management. However, such data are still not widely available due to the limited knowledge of complex human activity patterns. The emergence of location-based service big data provides additional opportunities to solve this problem. In this study, we integrated ambient population data, nighttime light data, and building volume data;innovatively proposed a spatial downscaling framework for Baidu heat map data during work time and sleep time;and mapped the population distribution with high spatiotemporal resolution (i.e., hourly, 100 m) in Beijing. Finally, we validated the generated population distribution maps with high spatiotemporal resolution using the highest-quality validation data (i.e., mobile signaling data). The relevant results indicate that our proposed spatial downscaling framework for both work time and sleep time has high accuracy, that the distribution of the population in Beijing on a regular weekday shows "centripetal centralization at daytime, centrifugal dispersion at night" spatiotemporal variation characteristics, that the interaction between the purpose of residents' activities and the spatial functional differences leads to the spatiotemporal evolution of the population distribution, and that China's "surgical control and dynamic zero COVID-19" epidemic policy was strongly implemented. In addition, our proposed spatial downscaling framework can be transferred to other regions, which is of value for governmental emergency measures and for studies about human risks to environmental issues.
ABSTRACT
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments have struggled to devise strategies to slow down the spread of the virus. This struggle happens because pandemics are complex scenarios with many unknown variables. In this context, simulated models are used to evaluate strategies for mitigating this and future pandemics. This paper proposes a simulator that analyses small communities by using real geographical data to model the road interactions and the agent's behaviors. Our simulator consists of three different modules: Environment, Mobility, and Infection module. The environment module recreates an area based on map data, including houses, restaurants, and roads. The mobility module determines the agents' movement in the map based on their work schedule and needs, such as eating at restaurants, doing groceries, and going to work. The infection module simulates four cases of infection: on the road, at home, at a building, and off the map. We simulate the surrounding areas of the University of Tsukuba and design three intervention strategies, comparing them to a scenario without any intervention. The interventions are: 1) PCR testing and self-isolation if positive;2) applying lockdown measures to restaurants and barbershops 3) closing grocery stores and restaurants and providing delivery instead. For all scenarios, we observe two areas where most infection happens: hubs, where people from different occupations can meet (e.g., restaurants), and non-hubs, where people with the same occupation meet (e.g., offices). The simulations show that most interventions reduce the total number of infected agents by a large margin. We observed that interventions targeting hubs (2-4) did not impact the infection at non-hubs. In addition, the intervention targeting people's behavior (1) ended up creating a cluster at the testing center. © 2022 International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (www.ifaamas.org). All rights reserved